Welcome to the Ruminations of an Aspiring Renaissance ManI hope you enjoy the social commentary and economic interpretation. Any supporting arguments and constructive criticism are welcome. Please take any investment advise to your personal financial professional (even if he seems to be an idiot), before implementing any investment OPINIONS contained within this blog. Just because I'm a well educated financial professional doesn't mean I'll be right. It doesn't mean I'm wrong either though. Live Long and Prosper :)
Atlas: refers to the objectivist opus of Ayn Rand; “Atlas Shrugged”
Renaissance: the revival of learning and culture.
The mission of the blog is to foster critical thinking of current events in the hope of a new Renaissance and an exit from the New Dark Ages of Corporate Kingdoms and Wage Serfs.
Atlas has shrugged but he is just marshaling his resources for a rebirth.
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Monthly Archives: March 2009
The next great mistake in American Accounting History may occur next week.
It’s all about Mark-to-Market which, while as boring as a cow and some gold, also has as much societal importance as the first moment when some genius traded his gold for some cow.
Mark to Market (MTM) is a term used with investments where an owner assigns a daily value to a particular asset or investment. An easy example would be looking at the final price today for say, IBM, and then using that number to value your 1000 shares.
So today, March 20th , with IBM closing at $92.51 , the MTM value of your 1000 shares would be $92,510. Marking IBM to market is easy because it trades a lot every day. Imagine trying to MTM an item like a baseball card.
Now today we are hearing calls to suspend the requirement that banks MTM their investments in things like mortgage securities and credit default swaps (CDS). We all know what a mortgage is, but valuing the securities can be difficult, especially on a daily basis, and a CDS is even less frequently traded, if at all.
We don’t even need to know what a CDS, all we need to know is that the market is now saying many of them are virtually worthless. Of course the banks, and CNBC, insist that they’ll be more valuable once this storm passes.
Imagine the market today had priced IBM at $5 per share. We can disagree about the appropriateness of that price, but if we mark your 1000 shares to market, accounting rules force you to use this price. Your $92,510 just became $5,000. Add the caveat that you borrowed $90,000 to make the initial purchase and we quickly see how important the term Mark-to-Market really is.
Hence the whole debate about the MTM requirement.
Initially, I opposed suspending MTM because I believed that, similar to a fire sale; the securities these banks hold are indeed permanently damaged, even in some cases actually burned. I had other qualms as well. These same banks demanding accounting relief used these MTM rules to force their own customers and other counter-parties to sell at these supposed fire-sale price, using the ubiquitous margin calls of the last two years.
Then I had an epiphany.
We should suspend MTM, just not for the banks and billionaires.
Is your $600,000 house now supposedly worth $350,000? Do you have loans of $400,000? Don’t worry your little taxpayer head off.
We will suspend MTM for you. Just walk right into your bank and tell them: “I’m not interested in selling my house and my government told me you have to lend me money based on the value I assign.”
Who is a long term investor if not the homeowner? Suspending MTM and assigning “true” values to these assets will not only solve the underwater borrowing, but the tax shortfalls of local governments as well. Hey, homeowners can’t have it all; if you tell the bank your House is worth $600,000, you gotta pay the taxes.
Now, if you are of the not so rare breed that isn’t underwater, at least 80% of the population, then you can tell the bank whatever you want. No mortgage, just tell them your house a piece of s$#t and your taxes might be zero.
Maybe those crazy bankers are right after all about suspending MTM.
From a Gold Commercial:
“It has never been worth zero.”
Remember that England used Universal Healthcare to help lift it from the ruins of WW II so we should be able to use it for GB II.
(sorry for the Ad, not in my control)
At the request of a friend a video and some truth:
When paying is Penny is still getting Ripped off.
Picture ten houses all with $100,000, 30yr mortgages on $200,000 houses. They each pay $1000 per month into a pool of payments equaling $10,000 per month.
Now in the olden days, the bank received all these payments. If one homeowner completely defaults through bankruptcy, the bank would only receive $9,000 per month going forward and one house. Pretty Simple
Today it’s all different.
Instead of the bank owning all the future payments or the house after a default, individual investors own either a portion of the future payments or the right to a house after foreclosure.
Someone might own the right to the first two checks mailed in by homeowners each month. Another investor gets monthly payments two through five mailed in by homeowners each month.
Now who would want to own the last payment each month after just one homeowner defaults, sends jingle mail, walks away, etc.?