Beware of calls of Media Bias A.K.A. Talking Ourselves into a Recession.

The financial illiterate laymen I speak with all think this is a great time to buy despite the losses suffered in their 401ks. Financial Advisors and Money magazine have been beating in the dual mantra’s of dollar cost averaging and “equities always outperform the other asset classes long term”.
It seems that the obvious of history is just that, history.
The scary thing is that the average investor isn’t selling anything…yet.
As for the standard fare of the media being behind the price curve. Keep this in mind: December 18, 2000 Newsweek had the following on their cover: “Recession Ahead?”
While the facts are:
December 18, 2000
Dow closed at 10,645 (bottomed at 7,286 on Oct 9, 2002, 31.5% further drop)
S&P closed at 1,305 (bottomed at 801 on Sep 30, 2002, 38.6% further drop)
Assuming the media’s timing is just as bad today:
Dow at 12,000 today will bottom at 8,220
S&P at 1,300 today will bottom at 798
The obvious is that most people don’t understand subprime, auction rate preferreds, OTC derivatives or any other financial gobblegook. And they haven’t done anything about it either. Wait until they do before you begin buying anything.
On a side note: the S&P is exactly where it started at the begining of our first “CEO” presidency.

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