One of the primary economic arguments today is whether we will have deflation caused by the bad economy or inflation caused by the response to the bad economy.

I believe we will see deflation in many assets but inflation in staples like food and water.

It’s my opinion that we will continue to see a huge inflation in Cash prices but offsetting deflation in Credit prices. Think of the CPI as averaging the two product baskets, hence the disinformation of current low inflation being reported.

For example, bread is typically purchased with cash while TV’s are typically purchased with Credit.

We all know the distortions of the current CPI dating back to the Clinton years. To really understand the problem just simplify the basket to two goods; one a necessity and one a luxury.

2006 – Bread – $1 per loaf, 30″ Flat Screen TV – $1000
2009 – Bread – $2 per loaf, 30″ Flat Screen TV – $500

In 2006, $3000 would buy 1000 loaves of Bread and two 30″ Flat Screens

In 2009, $3000 would buy 1000 loaves of Bread and two 30″ Flat Screens

Hence no inflation, as long as you can eat a Flat Screen TV.

If you would like to learn more just Wiki “Gresham’s Law”

From the WSJ: UBS Cutting Value Of Auction-Rate Securities In Brokerage Accounts

UBS is the first of what will surely be many large banks to pass losses on Auction Rate Securities on to their customers. Of course these are the same customers who were told that these investments were as liquid and as safe as cash.

The Money Quote:

“Some Clients Will Face Losses on Paper Of More Than 20%”

We’re all Charlie Brown now