Sky's the Limit

It seems the entire global economy has been subverted by the rich robbing from the poor.

It’s been said a sucker is born every minute, but should our economy be based on their victimization?

I can’t see how this won’t end badly.

I probably won’t get the iPad, though if you have an extra, I’d be happy to take it off your hands.  I have, however, started being a little more careless with my iPhone.  If my iPhone were to meet an untimely end, I will replace it with the iPad.

Why iPad?

The real genius of the iPad is that it is just a blank piece of paper. Any software developer, engineer or backyard inventor can be creative both on the inside, software, and outside, kickstands, cases, etc.

I hate to sound like I drink Apple Koolaide, but some weaknesses critics see in the iPad are intentional concessions to third party developers and accessory companies.  Without a robust third party sphere any PC product will stagnate. Plus, Apple loves make licensing fees on accessories they expended zero R & D dollars to create.

Of course, some weaknesses are also Apple underwhelming on the first generation so they can meet the price point and leave room for Wow with the 2G iPad.

“”What we see in the United States and some other economies is a statistical recovery and a human recession.”

Larry Summers, Davos, Jan 30, 2010 (via CNBC)

Plus, he’s actually quite wrong on the stats and also understates the human reality:

Sadly for many, the stock market will eventually reflect reality.

This isn't going to end well.

Where's the money coming from?

Employment over decades of boom/bust

Formally highly liquid, Money Markets to get new withdrawal lockouts just like your favorite hedge fund.

South Park, once again ahead of the curve.

Video below IS work friendly, unless or course, you work at a TBTF Bank.

When good advice is bad advice.

Worth less, please continue, and buy Gold soon, because the S&P is a mirage and your job might be a mirage too.

I don't thing he'll get the same reception

Two people get a splinter.  Not too severe but requiring immediate attention.

The first of our individuals, John has “good” insurance.  John, no longer living near his Mom, decides it requires a medical visit.  The large sliver is removed and the doctor is able to bill the insurance company $300.  The doctor also uses $50 worth of overpriced medical equipment.

The second individual, without access to his Mom, has however, found a even better skilled wife.  She quickly performed the exact same procedure as the doctor, albiet without the commute and wait for the doctor.  Likewise, the insurance company realized monetary benefits by not having to pay the doctor.

Apply this same methodology to all medical care and we quickly conclude that the current system is inefficient for most parties, save doctors and pharmaceuticals.

A minor sprained ankle that can be treated without either a doctors visit, expensive drugs and hours waiting to see a doctor and the huge bill for someone, is a benefit to everyone.

The only way for medical care to be both good and universally available to is deregulate medical practices and buy less drugs.  Logically, the only way to save money is to spend less somewhere.  You can’t be against rationing while simultaneously being against rising costs, it’s irrational.

II.

Insurances company do not need to be regulated, they just need to lose their anti-trust exemption.  Either we regulate or we don’t.  Allowing a monopoly is the worst kind of regulation.   There is no reason a medical practice and hospital affiliation shouldn’t offer it’s own “in-network” insurance.  The government can cover all “out-of-network” costs if you happen to be traveling.

III.

Another simple step is to allow all registered nurses to become sole operators offering house calls.  Even if they just became commissioned reps of a doctors office.   How much would you pay to have a trusted registered nurse doing house calls?  As a lay person, I have learned that Nurses are far better performing normally required medical service.

Avoiding exposure to a hospital or even a doctors office was lost when house calls became inefficient.

Finally, If you want to know wether the eventual bill is all corporate giveaway, check the stock market.  So long as Big Pharm and Insurance Cos continue to see stock gains we know the Healthcare bill is just corporate welfare masquerading as populism.

During my flight home, I was thinking about Apple success and it’s inevitable switch from underdog to favorite. It’s rise and the current cellphone battle between Apple, Blackberry, etc is the best proof that competition, in an uncorrupted form, does produce greatness. Does anyone think Ma Bell could have gotten us an iPhone?

As a devoted iPhone and Apple follower one might be forced to look negatively at their competition. Quite the contrary, we should hope that Palm and the others do their bast to force Apple to continue innovating.

Check out the new Droid ad for further proof:

A bear only needs to be right once a decade to make money. 2000 and 2008 make us two for last eight. If we can batt .300 by getting 2009 in the win column, to paraphrase David Winfield; baseball, and being a bear, is the only job where you can fail 7 out of 10 times and still make million

What perma bull made money from 1998 to 2008 with a buy and hold strategy ?? NONE.

Bears don’t make 50% in six months like the S&P, but they don’t lose 40% in that time either. Any math with tell you that losing 40% (S&P actually lost 57%) leave a million dollars down to $600,000 so followed by a gain of 50% (S&P currently up 55% from low), leaves you at $900,000 down $100,000.

Not so for a realistic and hedged bear over the last 12-16 months.  For the prudent bear the returns are much better, say  down 10% then up 20% (rather -40% than +50%). This takes the million down to $900,000 then back up to $108,000. Sure you only made $8,000 (8%) but that crushes the loss perma-bulls endured.

Look at any long term S&P charts and the evidence is clear.

Bulls should acknowledge and apologize for the last, going on eleven, years of BEAR market fact. The same people who were shouting bull were shooting bull. And they still are.