How are you invested ??

Just because it’s a bull for three months doesn’t mean it’s not an irrational bull.

A bear only needs to be right once a decade to make money. 2000 and 2008 make us two for last eight. If we can batt .300 by getting 2009 in the win column, to paraphrase David Winfield; baseball, and being a bear, is the only job where you can fail 7 out of 10 times and still make million

What perma bull made money from 1998 to 2008 with a buy and hold strategy ?? NONE.

Bears don’t make 50% in six months like the S&P, but they don’t lose 40% in that time either. Any math with tell you that losing 40% (S&P actually lost 57%) leave a million dollars down to $600,000 so followed by a gain of 50% (S&P currently up 55% from low), leaves you at $900,000 down $100,000.

Not so for a realistic and hedged bear over the last 12-16 months.  For the prudent bear the returns are much better, say  down 10% then up 20% (rather -40% than +50%). This takes the million down to $900,000 then back up to $108,000. Sure you only made $8,000 (8%) but that crushes the loss perma-bulls endured.

Look at any long term S&P charts and the evidence is clear.

Bulls should acknowledge and apologize for the last, going on eleven, years of BEAR market fact. The same people who were shouting bull were shooting bull. And they still are.

Next Viral Video – With No Apology

As good as “You Lie” but actually the truth and we won’t be seeing an apology on this one.

To add  a little more gravitas to Congressman Grayson, he is also a champion for Federal Reserve accountability.   He is quickly becoming the Democratic answer to Texas Republican Ron Paul.

The Billy Mays of Wall Street

In honor of Bill Mays, the first “Billy Mays, Salesman of the Year”

2008 – Jim Cramer

Billy Mays never sold a product with a $700 billion commission, plus trailers.

Begs the question, is it a good thing that Wall St is based on PT Barnum’s motto on the minute?

Quotes of the Day (or week if I’m feeling uninspired)

“In the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce man, and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot.”-  Mark Twain

 

 

“Those who stand for nothing fall for anything.” – Alexander Hamilton

 

 

A Bailout by Any Other Name Still Stinks

Bail out the duped and you reward misplaced trust

Bail out the expert and you reward incompetence

By bailing out Wall Street and not the individual homeowners we will cause long term damage by both eroding trust and encouraging incompetence.

Wall Street, with Jim Cramer as its spokesmen, whine that these tactics are necessary to avoid a greater calamity. As I mentioned previously, these same tactics in 1998 are what caused today’s greater calamity.

Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat. – Sun Tzu

Quote of the Day

“Regardless of the dollar price involved, one ounce of gold would purchase a good-quality man’s suit at the conclusion of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, and today.”

-Peter A. Burshre

Quote of the Day (or week if I’m feeling uninspired)

“Party affiliation is an easy way to disavow responsibility for knowing right from wrong.”

Me, March 4, 2008